India Covid 19 Predictions Using Box- Jenkins Model and Correlation Analysis between Confirmed, Death, Tested and Vaccinated Cases Using Panel Regression & Pearson's Coefficient

Suraj Jayasimha

Box-Jenkins Model, Panel Regression, Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient, P Value, Scatter Plot.

Covid 19 Pandemic has affected millions worldwide over the last two years and we are still grappling with the disease.  A research was conducted on the India state wise COVID19 related data (Confirmed, Death,Tested and Vaccination Cases) available from source https://api.covid19india.org/.(1) A time series model (in this case Box Jenkins Model or ARIMA) was used to predict the confirmed cases, Death cases and Tested cases for a period of 8 weeks from 8th July 2021. Also, a correlation analysis using panel regression and Persons Correlation Coefficient was performed to establish any correlation between Confirmed cases, Death Cases, Tested cases and Vaccination both independently and with Joint effect. . The actual data was compared until 12th August 2021 with the predicted values from the model. The variances between predicted values and actual data were quite minimal. While the time series   is usually best in predicting the numbers closer to the period, the predictions can be useful to understand the number of cases to make an action plan to combat the future cases.  Panel Regression analysis and Person’s correlation coefficient was used to establish correlation if any between Confirmed cases, Death cases, Tested Cases and Vaccination. While it was possible to   establish positive correlation between Confirmed cases and Tested cases, Death Cases and Tested Cases   using both the Panel Regression analysis and Person’s correlation coefficient, there was no correlation   established between Confirmed cases and vaccinated cases with a 3-month lag and Death Cases and Vaccinated cases with a 3-month lag using both the methods. This may be due to the fact the vaccination started in full force only in the middle of the 2021, the effects of vaccination will be seen post June 2021. A scatter plot was also drawn to validate the results.   

https://doi.org/10.31871/IJNTR.7.8.5