Modeling of the Pandemicrisk in Lebanon

ZaherKhraibani

The main objective of this article is to study the impact of the influenza pandemic on the Lebanese population, which provides anew methodology and a technique of constructing a model for influenza pandemic.Another objective is to study also the impact of influenza pandemic on the portfolio of the company insurance by determining the mortality experience from such event in order to evaluate the pandemic losses of the portfolio. The results presented in this report are based on both quantitative and qualitative analysis to the extent permitted by the available data. Moreover, the results performed in the analysis were affected by major levels of uncertainty. This is obvious due to its relation to the future mortality and various incidence experiences taking place, as well as the future composition of the portfolio by using a different statistical method.

Flu pandemics have occurred throughout history. There have been four different types since 1918, each with different characteristics [1].  In 1918-1919 illness of the Spanish Flu came on quickly.